IMF forecasts 3.1% global growth in 2026, rising to 3.4% in 2027
Conflict, trade tensions and reassessed AI expectations figure among IMF downside risks. Its October forecast projects stronger 2027 growth and lower inflation.
What happened
In its October 13 World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It forecasts headline inflation of 4.7% in 2026, easing to 4.1% the following year.
The outlook identifies conflict escalation, trade tensions and reassessment of AI expectations as downside risks. These are forecasts based on information available through October 1, rather than new measurements from the day of this briefing.
Sources and method
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