{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "compiledAt": "2026-11-05T04:52:56.845Z",
  "publication": "GlobalPulse",
  "responsibleAuthor": "Bono Fei Jin",
  "id": "climate-adaptation-finance-agr-series-2026-11-05",
  "desk": "Climate",
  "category": "Climate",
  "byline": "Leah Stone",
  "suggestedTitle": "Public adaptation finance is 10.5% below its 2022 peak in UNEP's constant-price series",
  "suggestedExcerpt": "Six comparable annual readings show a fall from $31.5 billion in 2022 to $28.2 billion in 2024. We use UNEP's AGR method throughout and explain why its alternate OECD series can show a different direction.",
  "chartKind": "line",
  "chartTitle": "Public adaptation commitments, 2019–2024",
  "chartSubtitle": "AGR method; developed-to-developing attribution; constant 2024 US$bn; mobilized private finance excluded",
  "unit": "US$ billion, constant 2024 prices",
  "xKey": "year",
  "yKey": "publicCommitments",
  "rawRows": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "publicCommitments": 23.3,
      "sourceId": "unep-report"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "publicCommitments": 27.9,
      "sourceId": "unep-report"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "publicCommitments": 26,
      "sourceId": "unep-report"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "publicCommitments": 31.5,
      "sourceId": "unep-report"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "publicCommitments": 30.4,
      "sourceId": "unep-report"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "publicCommitments": 28.2,
      "sourceId": "unep-report"
    }
  ],
  "derivedMetrics": [
    {
      "name": "2024 change from 2022 peak",
      "formula": "(28.2 / 31.5 - 1) * 100",
      "value": -10.476190476190483,
      "displayValue": "−10.5%",
      "unit": "percent",
      "absoluteChange": -3.3,
      "absoluteChangeUnit": "US$bn, constant 2024 prices"
    },
    {
      "name": "2024 year-on-year change",
      "formula": "(28.2 / 30.4 - 1) * 100",
      "value": -7.236842105263152,
      "displayValue": "−7.2%",
      "unit": "percent",
      "absoluteChange": -2.2,
      "absoluteChangeUnit": "US$bn, constant 2024 prices"
    },
    {
      "name": "2019–2024 change",
      "formula": "(28.2 / 23.3 - 1) * 100",
      "value": 21.03004291845494,
      "displayValue": "+21.0%",
      "unit": "percent",
      "absoluteChange": 4.9,
      "absoluteChangeUnit": "US$bn, constant 2024 prices"
    }
  ],
  "reconciliation": {
    "reason": "UNEP's press release reports a 2024 range of US$28.2–31.7bn and a US$1bn increase. The range combines two methodological estimates; it is not a statistical confidence interval.",
    "plottedSeries": "Figure 2.3(a): AGR methodology based on OECD CRDF; commitments in constant 2024 prices. Public series 2023=30.4 and 2024=28.2.",
    "alternateSeriesNotPlotted": "Figure 2.3(b): OECD US$100bn report methodology in current prices. Public series 2023=30.7 and 2024=31.7.",
    "alternateRowsForAuditOnly": [
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "publicFinanceCurrentPrices": 18.8
      },
      {
        "year": 2020,
        "publicFinanceCurrentPrices": 25.4
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "publicFinanceCurrentPrices": 23
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "publicFinanceCurrentPrices": 28.9
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "publicFinanceCurrentPrices": 30.7
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "publicFinanceCurrentPrices": 31.7
      }
    ],
    "methodDifference": "Report Table 2.1 identifies different bilateral data sources and treatment of fiscal/calendar years, commitments/disbursements and cross-cutting finance. Price basis also differs. Inflation alone does not explain the divergence.",
    "captionRequired": "Source: UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2026, Figure 2.3(a). GlobalPulse calculations from rounded published values. AGR method, constant 2024 prices; commitments, not verified recipient disbursements."
  },
  "methodNotes": [
    "All six points come from a single figure, method and price base. There are six observations spanning five annual intervals; no years have been interpolated.",
    "Use only the public-finance series attributed to developed countries. The figure's mobilized-private series has different attribution and is excluded.",
    "Amounts are rounded by UNEP to one decimal place. Derived percentages are approximate; display one decimal place rather than false precision.",
    "A finance commitment is not proof that the recipient has received or spent the money. AGR uses commitments because disbursement reporting is less complete.",
    "Do not subtract 2024 commitments from UNEP's estimated 2035 annual adaptation needs to make a same-year funding gap. This chart measures public commitments, not the total cost of adaptation or a yearly gap."
  ],
  "editorialAngle": "The trend survives a like-for-like calculation within the AGR series. The conflicting direction of the press-release shorthand is an opportunity to explain how reporting methods change a headline, instead of presenting the two estimates as interchangeable measurements.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "unep-report",
      "title": "Adaptation Gap Report 2026",
      "url": "https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstreams/77dd0e41-0bc7-415e-a17e-9af4c7dd59ba/download",
      "landingUrl": "https://wedocs.unep.org/items/93231698-f219-414f-bcb6-f57e9c9b704e",
      "publisher": "UNEP",
      "publishedAt": "2026-11-04",
      "locator": "Figure 2.3(a), PDF page 38 of 116 (zero-based index 37), printed page 18. Figure 2.3(b) is on the same page. Table 2.1 is PDF page 37 / printed page 17. Section 2.3 is PDF page 36 / printed page 16.",
      "verifiedBy": "Primary PDF numeric labels, figure legend, methodology text and Table 2.1; table screenshot requested."
    },
    {
      "id": "unep-release",
      "title": "As world heads for overshoot of 1.5°C, adaptation is too slow",
      "url": "https://www.unep.org/en/news-and-stories/press-release/world-heads-overshoot-15degc-adaptation-too-slow",
      "publisher": "UNEP",
      "publishedAt": "2026-11-04",
      "locator": "International finance section reports the 28.2–31.7 range, the US$1bn change and the 2035 needs estimate. Use only to explain the scope of the release, not to replace the plotted method."
    }
  ],
  "weeklyFollowUp": "Audit a new climate-finance or project-outcome release against its underlying table. Carry forward the same price base, attribution and commitment/disbursement definition; record revisions before extending the series."
}